Follow us as each week as our best writers from around the Bloguin Network take aim at each other and square off on anything and everything baseball from "who was better, Mays or Mantle" to "Should MLB have a salary cap?"
Pick a side and agree or disagree. Take part in the debate by posting a comment giving your own opinion. There are no holds barred and nothing is held back in the "The Great Bloguin Baseball Debate."
Today's Topic is: Who will win the American League Central?
The MINNESOTA TWINS will win the American League Central
By Andrew Kneeland, Twins Target: "TwinsTarget provides commentary and analysis, with a side dish of sabermetrics and economics. An avid Twins fan, the author of this blog loves nothing more than to lay out his thoughts on the team and the league as a whole. Whether it's a simple transaction analysis, an in-depth minor league scouting report, or a breakdown of historic free agent markets, TwinsTarget.com has all your baseball needs covered!"
The AL Central has historically been one of the more weak, albeit competitive, divisions in baseball. The division winner has averaged just 93 wins per season, and the last 100-game winner to come out of the AL Central was the Cleveland Indians, back in 1995.
In 2009, the AL Central outpaced their NL Central counterparts by scoring an average of 76.4 wins per team. The NL Central averaged 76, which was the lowest mark in baseball. The AL West averaged 86 wins per team, which led baseball.
Regardless of the strength of its inhabitants, though, the AL Central will send no fewer than one team to the postseason in 2010. Judging from past seasons, this six-month long struggle will be a dogfight to the end. Here are five reasons why the Minnesota Twins will win the AL Central:
Much More Offensive Firepower Than Rest of Division
As the old saying goes, "Hitting wins games, but pitching and defense wins championships." The Minnesota Twins, with a loaded offense and spotty pitching staff will attempt to refute that claim in 2010.
There is no doubting that the Twins will be able to score plenty of runs. No fewer than five players in the lineup are capable of hitting 30 home runs: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, JJ Hardy, and conceivably Delmon Young.
The first two batters in Minnesota's lineup - Denard Span and Orlando Hudson -- are offensive threats in their own right. Nick Punto, who will likely bat ninth, is the only batter in the order who won't make opposing pitchers sweat.
Up and down the order, there aren't too many batters who will be rally-killers. Clearly, if the Twins win the AL Central, the offense will be largely responsible.
A Solid Defense, Especially in the Infield
Minnesota does not have the best outfield defense by any stretch of the imagination, but last year's horrid UZR totals are a bit misleading.* Due to the bright lights of the Metrodome and the "baggy" in right field, both Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer appeared to be much worse defenders than they actually were.
(* - For those not aware, UZR, or "Ultimate Zone Rating," is a defensive stat that people prefer to use over the traditional fielding percentage. UZR eliminates the subjectivity of "errors" and fielding percentage, while rating players based on how much of the field they cover, and how well they cover the field relative to other players of that position. For more information on UZR, check out this primer.)
We polled 58 scouts including at least one from all 30 Major League Baseball clubs to get a pre-season feel for where they think each team will finish. Each scout put down the record they thought every team would finish with; we averaged them out and came up with the data. Here's what they came up with for the National League teams.
* This is not a prediction as to where each team will finish, it's a mathematical computation of the results of the poll.
It looks like they are anticipating both the Mets and Nationals to improve significantly
The Cardinals once again seem to be the class of the Central
The Giants, Dodgers and Rockies are once again expected to beat the crap out of each other in a manage a trios race for the playoffs with all three expected to get spots.
Things don't look good for the Pirates and Padres
P.S. - If you don't like your teams pre-season ranking don't send us nasty e-mail. We're just the messenger! - Blake Kearny
Blake is a retired baseball scout (34 years) from Los Angeles, California. He currently runs a baseball school for children in Los Angeles.
If you haven't voted in our poll on the site yet please do so. We are trying to get a feel for how our readers are looking at the game of MLB so we can write about things they want to hear. The poll question is,"Do you think that MLB should have a salary cap or something similar?"
Have a Fantasy Football or Rotisserie baseball question? Want to know who to pick up, who to activate and who the hot prospects are? Ask Dr. Roto. Let Dr. Roto guide your team to a league championship.
We polled 58 scouts including at least one from all 30 Major League Baseball clubs to get a pre-season feel for where they think each team will finish. Each scout put down the record they thought every team would finish with; we averaged them out and came up with the data. Here's what they came up with for the American League teams.
* You will notice that there are two Wild Card Winners Listed. That's because the Red Sox came up with the better record on the mathematical average but the Rays received more voted for actually making the playoffs.
** This is not a prediction as to where each team will finish, it's a mathematical computation of the results of the poll.
The Kansas City Royals picked to win 83 games! Whoa! They are expecting a repeat year from Zack Greinke, a breakout year from Luke Hochevar and Alex Gordon (his thumb injury was taken into account), and All-Star year from Billy Butler. Well wouldn't that be somethin' special!
It looks like they think that Nolan Ryan's Texas Rangers have enough pitching to get the job done.
P.S. - If you don't like your teams pre-season ranking don't send us nasty e-mail. We're just the messenger! - Blake Kearny
Blake is a retired baseball scout (34 years) from Los Angeles, California. He currently runs a baseball school for children in Los Angeles.
If you haven't voted in our poll on the site yet please do so. We are trying to get a feel for how our readers are looking at the game of MLB so we can write about things they want to hear. The poll question is,"Do you think that MLB should have a salary cap or something similar?"
Have a Fantasy Football or Rotisserie baseball question? Want to know who to pick up, who to activate and who the hot prospects are? Ask Dr. Roto. Let Dr. Roto guide your team to a league championship.
How many of you have read or participated in any of THE GREAT BLOGUIN BASEBALL DEBATE'S here on our site? If you haven't read any of them or participated with comments of your own, you are really missing something special.
The debates are full of fact packed dialogue with knowledgeable baseball writers from around the Bloguin Network. While you may have some opinions of your own on these topics, I'm certain you will learn or thing or two as well. I know I did.
In the nine debates we've had so far, we've had a remarkable happenstance in almost every instance. In virtually every debate the comments have (at some point during the debate) gone off into a "Should Ron Santo be in the Hall of Fame" tangent!
I have no idea where the ground swell is coming from, but the most interesting part here is that he's almost always brought up by the readers as not being Hall of Fame material with the writers of the blog's almost always in the overwhelming minority position of arguing that he should in fact be in the HOF.
I thought that most people were apathetic towards the Cubs? Aren't they that loveable team that hasn't won in 100 years? What did Santos ever do to draw the ire of the rest of baseball nation? Are there that many anti Cubs fans in the world? Does he take the blame for "Curse of the Black Cat?"
This leads to the question, 'why do readers seem to be actively campaigning for Ron Santo to NOT get in?' I can't say I've ever been to another place on this earth (either physical or site on the internet) where it seems that hundreds of people all at once feel spontaneously compelled to state that Ron Santo should not get into the HOF......
Santo retired thirty six years ago. If you aren't at least 50 years old there's no way you can have seen him play in his prime and be old enough to make a rational judgment. I'm about to turn 43 and my recollection of Santo playing is like that of Willie Mays. I can remember the last few years of their careers which certainly didn't contain vintage performances from either of them. (Willie Mays: The Life, The Legend: Book Review)
I'm not complaining, but I have a hard time believing that so many of our readers are fifty years old and older. Since I don't know however, I'm not going to assume that is or isn't the case because maybe we do have a significant amount of older readers.
This morning I asked John Manfrede who we have adopted as our 'Official Baseball Historian', what he thought of Ron Santo. If you recall, John is 87 years old and both seen and remembers quite a bit of baseball during his time. The 87 year old Manfrede even recalls Lou Gehrig's farewell Speech as he was in attendance that famous day.
So the doctors have taken a look and Joe Nathan has a torn UCL (ulnar collateral ligament).
They are going to wait two or three weeks and see if he can pitch through it, but this one has "Tommy John" surgery written all over it. Even if he can pitch he couldn't possibly be as effective or as durable.
When we last looked at this situation we said that in the end, the success or failure of the 2010 Twins would come down to Joe Nathan. As you recall, Nathan has been every bit the equal of Mariano Rivera the past few years in the regular season while proving to be the ultimate choke artist in the post season "making Armando Benitez look clutch."
The Twins have a fantastic front office, one that is the envy of the league. If there is a trade to be made or a player on their roster to take the role, you can be sure they will make the right move.
When asked who will take over, manager Ron Gardenhire was quoted as saying the following.
"We got all kinds of arms out there. What, we got 27, 28 guys with arms, so we'll find someone."
My guess is that of no moves are made before opening day that Jon Rauch will grab the spot. The Twins are built to play close games so whoever it is, one guy or a by committee approach, there will be plenty of chances.
If they do make the playoffs almost anything they get from that position will be better than what Nathan has given them though.
Nathan has pitched in 7 post season games. In those 7 post season games he's pitched 7.1 innings, given up 10 Hits, 7 walks and 7 runs. He only gave up 16 runs all of last regular season and that was over 70 games!
As the saying goes though, "one thing at a time", and they can worry about playoff performance if they get into the playoffs. This will certainly throw a kink into their regular season plans.
I had previously picked the Twins to win the division, now I'm not so sure. What a shame, a new stadium, prospects of locking Joe Mauer up for the ages.... And now this. - Brian James
Brian is an independent sports journalist. Brian has been covering major professional sports for over 25 years.
If you haven't voted in our poll on the site yet please do so. We are trying to get a feel for how our readers are looking at the game of MLB so we can write about things they want to hear. The poll question is,"Do you think that MLB should have a salary cap or something similar?"
Have a Fantasy Football or Rotisserie baseball question? Want to know who to pick up, who to activate and who the hot prospects are? Ask Dr. Roto. Let Dr. Roto guide your team to a league championship.
Follow us as each week as our best writers from around the Bloguin Network take aim at each other and square off on anything and everything baseball from "who was better, Mays or Mantle" to "Should MLB have a salary cap?"
Pick a side and agree or disagree. Take part in the debate by posting a comment giving your own opinion. There are no holds barred and nothing is held back in the "The Great Bloguin Baseball Debate."
Today's Topic is: Should Joe Mauer be moved from behind home plate?
Joe Mauer SHOULD be moved from behind home plate
By Slanch, The Slanch Report - Presenting the best in off-beat sports news, mainstream sports idiocy, the choicest Doppelgangers and always plenty of baseball. Oh and hot chicks, lots of hot chicks.
There is no doubt that Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the American League, but his highest value, the reason the Minnesota Twins want to make a long-term commitment to him, is for his ability at the plate, not behind it.
In the five full years he's spent in the majors, Mauer has missed a total of 146 games. As the team looks to invest in Mauer for the next decade they want to ensure they get the most out of him. At his current pace, missing one out of every 5 seasons is not a great start. Looking forward, as Mauer gets older he isn't likely to become MORE durable, particularly in such a taxing position like catcher. That's not to suggest that Mauer is a bad catcher, he is in fact a better than average catcher. The two Gold Gloves he's won in successive years are a bit deceiving though, they've been gained more thanks to his bat than his glove-work.
Last season Mauer experienced his long-awaited power breakout, he also missed the first month of the season and only tallied 109 games behind the plate, DHing another 28 games -- a career high. How are the Twins best served by having their best player missing an AVERAGE of 30 games a season? That's nearly 120 potential ABs that they are needlessly losing out on.
Having an excellent hitting catcher is an awesome luxury, having a young hitting machine is an even greater one.
In 1992, after 3 years of 100+ games played at catcher in the majors, Craig Biggio switched full-time to playing second base. Already having won a Silver Slugger and been an All Star as a catcher, Biggio made the switch. Over the next 8 seasons he averaged 152 games a season (8 games more) and an OPS+ of 130; that's really really good. Craig Biggio was one of the very good players in the league during his day. Mauer is one of the very best, certainly markedly better than Biggio, one whose talent and ability puts him in the rare stratosphere of one-name superstars, along with the likes of Albert, Hanley and Endy.
If you were with us last year you probably remember the now infamous comment by reader Chuck Savnil of Ft. Lauderdale, Florida regarding Matt Kemp and his fantasy frustrations with Joe Torre pinning Matt Kemp so far down in the Dodgers batting order.
"Even though he's been stuck in the 6/7/8 position all year, now that interleague play has begun, Joe Torre's dream has finally come true. He batted Matt Kemp ninth today. Clearly Kemp viciously sodomized Torre's daughter, or Torre, or something."
Despite Joe Torre burying him in the line-up, Matt Kemp was one of the most productive offensive players in all of baseball last year. His line of .297 / 26 HR's / 101 RBI / 34 SB / 97 RS / SLG .490 was a fantasy players dream.
Last month I opined that Torre's use of Kemp might have been the biggest misuse of an impact player that we've seen in our lifetime. Can you think of another player that could hit for average, power and run like Kemp can that batted so consistently so far down in the order?
Perhaps Joe Torre read our post (either that or Kemp has made amends with the Torre family....) Yesterday, Torre had Kemp batting in the two hole behind leadoff man Rafael Furcal and ahead of sluggers Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez.
Torre isn't asking Kemp to sacrifice though, he wants Kemp to utilize the tools that Kemp's fantasy baseball owners are salivating over; his ability to bat for average, hit HR's, drive in runs, steal bases and score runs.
"We don't want Matt Kemp to give himself up,'' Torre said. "But I think that second spot has changed its personality a lot. Years ago when you had Pee Wee Reese hitting second, his job was to move the runner and stuff. Now you want to move the runner all the way around to score.''
Kemp had 55 at-bats in the No. 2 spot last season, but had more batting fourth (111), fifth (70), sixth (100), seventh (174) and eighth (76). He had only five RBI out of the second spot last season.
Kemp already knows how to drive in runs, having pushed across 101 last season, 25 more than his first full season in the big leagues in 2008 but that number could take a hit if Kemp is batting in a spot not normally reserved for RBI men.
"Man, I hit one through nine since I've been in the big leagues and I can hit anywhere,'' Kemp said. "If that's where Joe wants me to hit, that's where I'm going to hit. I'll just do the best I can to get on base for the big boys.''
Kemp was the 2009 winner of the Silver Slugger Award for National League center fielders and finished 10th in National League MVP voting. And as Torre sees it, there have been some pretty decent players that have batted second.
"(Don) Mattingly hit two, Alex Rodriguez hit two,'' Torre said. "Matt, I think a big part of it in my thinking is the fact that he's going to be hitting in front of some thunder, so he'll get some pitches to hit. He can do some damage with pitches to hit. He's been much more disciplined than I thought he would be last year than he was the year before. He's only going to get better.''
"Batting second, I know (Furcal) is going to get on and cause havoc on the bases,'' Kemp said. "He's going to run and my job is to drive him in or get on base and let (Ethier and Ramirez) drive me in.''
Matt Kemp had a team-leading 139 strikeouts in 2009, but with the meat of the order coming up behind him and other teams not being able to pitch around him, there is no reason he can't cut those down.
While Kemp's opportunity for RBI may suffer a bit, he should thrive in every other category, more than making up for it and making fantasy owners happy campers..
If your question was not answered this time, you can go directly to the source @ https://www.roto-rx.com/ where Dr. Roto will answer all your Fantasy Baseball and Football questions.
The Doctor is in...
Question #1: I can keep Joakim Soria for $7 or bid or on Joe Nathan or K-Rod in the draft. Your thoughts? - Montel, Oklahoma St. University
Montel: Dr. Roto is not sure how much closers go for in your league, but I would have to think that Soria at $7 is a bargain. Sure, he had an off year last year, but that was more based on injury than bad pitching. As for the other two guys, I like Nathan, but am down on K-Rod. Stick with Soria...Dr. Roto thinks you will be pleasantly surprised.
Question #2: My league does things a bit different and we take an entire pitching staff and use their stats. What staff 1 through 5 would you recommend? - Maxwell, Wilmington, DE
Maxwell: What is going on in Delaware? Dr. Roto has never heard of such strange rules. Kinda makes it boring if you ask me...but I will give you my top 3.
Number 1--Cardinals: any team with Carpenter, Wainwright and my favorite pitching coach Dave Duncan is always a good start. Number
Number 2: Giants: not only do you get Lincecum and Cain, but throw in J. Sanchez and a young stud in Baumgarner.
Number 3: Red Sox: Dr. Roto normally is not a fan of AL pitching but the Red Sox are deep and good. Beckett, Lester, and Lackey head an outstanding rotation and Dr. Roto favorite, Clay Buchholz is ready to emerge soon as well.
Question #3: Who is someone that will start out with no fantasy value that may have a good probability of becoming a full time closer during the year? - Lionel, Sapporo, Japan
In 2006, pitcher Luke Hochevar signed a four-year, $5.3-million deal with the Royals after being the nation's No. 1 Draft choice. That expired last season when he earned $1.325 million for the year. Tuesday he signed a one-year, $1.7-million contract for 2010 with the Royals.
For most of us, making $5.3-million in your first four years of work and signing a $1.7-million contract to work in your fifth year would seem like a dream, but for Luke Hochevar it has to be a disappointment.
As the nations No. 1 pick, Hochevar was expected to be fast tracked to the major leagues and be a star. I'm certain that by now he expected to an impact player on a MLB club with a multi-million dollar arbitration award if not already locked up in a multi-year deal.
You can't say that he's been a bust because he's shown glimpses of lights out unhittable stuff. Hochevar began last season with Triple-A Omaha and was called up after a 5-0 start. In his young career Hochevar already has an 80-pitch, complete-game victory over the Cincinnati Reds, a 13 strikeout game against the Texas Rangers and a three-hit shutout of the Chicago White Sox. There are MLB pitchers that have 10 year careers that don't have those dominant type performances.
Then there are the bad days - the first overall pick in the 2006 amateur draft was bothered the big inning, a lot of them.. Houchevar gave up three or more runs in an inning 16 times! In fact, in his final three starts of the season, he allowed 21 earned runs in 14 innings. Ouch!
Hochevar is expected to be a key part of the rotation this season this year. Last year he was 7-13 with a 6.55 ERA in 25 starts. The Royals are expecting much, much more from this highly touted pick. While it may be too much to expect the kind of explosive season that Zack Greinke had last year, Hochevar still projects to be a top of the rotation guy and with 49 career starts under his belt, he should find a comfort zone and lot more consistency this year.
I'm not suggesting that you bid a lot for Luke Hochevar in your fantasy draft but if you let him go for $1 to someone else, you will be kicking yourself as they protect him for the next 4-5 years and he performs like the number one pick in the nation that he was. - Mike Cardano
Mike is the founder of Around the Horn Baseball Blog & Extra Point Football.
If you haven't voted in our poll on the site yet please do so. We are trying to get a feel for how our readers are looking at the game of MLB so we can write about things they want to hear. The poll question is,"Do you think that MLB should have a salary cap or something similar?"
Have a Fantasy Football or Rotisserie baseball question? Want to know who to pick up, who to activate and who the hot prospects are? Ask Dr. Roto. Let Dr. Roto guide your team to a league championship.
Who remembers the Price Fielder staged "Bowling" celebration with his teammates form last year?
Remember the circumstances?
September 6th in Milwaukee, in the heat of a highly contested menage trios style pennant race between the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Colorado Rockies, in the twelve inning of a 1-1- game between the Brewers and Giants Prince fielder hit a "bowl-off" home run.
Here's the problem I have. If you are going to hit Fielder in retaliation how about have Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Tim Lincecum or some other fire-baller do it? Zito can't break a pane of glass with a fastball. That was like having an infant spit up on him!
As Fielder began his trot to first base, he picked the ball off the ground and dismissively flipped it toward Zito. Even though the ball appeared to strike him square in the back, I'm not certain he even knew he was hit until the umpire awarded him first base!
Home-plate umpire Ted Barrett proceeded to say something to Zito, but he did not warn the benches.
Zito then struck out Casey McGehee to end the inning and walked close to Fielder on his way to the dugout, but they did not exchange words. Of course nothing was said, what words could have been uttered? "Hey Fielder, if you pull that crap again I'll hit you with my sweeping curve!"??
Do you have a Fantasy Baseball question for Dr. Roto? Dr. Roto answers 5 questions in his Roto-Rx post twice each week for our readers. If you have a Fantasy Baseball question for Dr. Roto, you may you may ask it here. If your question does not get chosen in the current week, you can go directly to the Dr. Roto site to get all your Fantasy Baseball questions answered.
Want to blog about Major League or Minor League Baseball? Around The Horn is looking for qualified contributors to help us provide daily coverage of the sport of Baseball. If you would like to become involved with the blog, please contact us and let us know why you think you would be a good fit for our staff. Serious inquiries only please.
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