Is Homer Bailey still a top prospect?

Considering the hype that has surrounded Bailey since he was drafted in the first round back in 2004, to many he has been a major disappointment.

While Homer Bailey does have 37 career starts under his belt, it's important to remember that Homer is still quite young and will only turn 24 years old one month into the 2010 season.

The first thing that strikes me when I think of Bailey is that HE NEEDS TO CHANGE HIS NAME! How the heck can you get out on a MLB mound and pitch with the name of Homer? You are set for failure before you ever throw a pitch? My suggestion is that he changes his name to "Strikeout" or "DP" (short for double play). ‘DP Bailey'.... I like that.

To date, in his young career Bailey has fallen victim to the same problem that bites many young talented pitchers, walks. 97 Walks in 195 innings is just way to many freebies. The fact that for a power pitcher he's given up 217 hits in 195 innings is not really a reflection on the quality of his stuff; he does in fact have quality stuff.

The alarming number of hits per innings pitched is mostly a reflection of the fact that he's been either behind in the count or felt compelled to throw a strike because he's walked previous hitters. I don't care who you are, if a major league hitter knows for certain that you are going to throw a fast ball and knows you are looking to throw it for a strike, the majority of the time they are going to hit the ball hard somewhere. If it happens to end up in someone's glove it's just good luck for the pitcher and bad luck for the hitter.

Homer Bailey has struggled through his first few years of major league service, but the 23-year-old may have turned a corner late last season, as he finished with a 6-1 record and 1.70 ERA in his final nine starts.

Providing he is healthy Dusty Baker is going to run Homer Bailey out there for 30 or so starts this year. Bailey has been around long enough now to learn from his mistakes and definitely has the tools to be successful.

While I do not think you will get a rags to riches Zack Greinke performance out of him this year, I do think that he pitch well enough to be an effective starter. My guess is that by 2011 the NL will see what all the hoopla was about with this kid.

If you are in a keeper league I would suggest that you pick him up for $2 if you can and leave him on your reserve roster for the 1st few weeks and see what you get. I'm guessing that by the 2nd half of the year you will feel comfortable using him in your rotation and that you will likely consider protecting him for 2001. - Blake Kearny

Blake is a retired baseball scout (34 years) from Los Angeles, California. He currently runs a baseball school for children in Los Angeles.

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