Should Aroldis Chapman start the year with the Reds? E-mail
Written by MC3 Sports Media   
Thursday, 18 February 2010 00:12

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Today's Debaters are:

Mike Cardano, Around the Horn Baseball

Joe Tetreault, TetreaultVision

Today's Topic is: Should Aroldis Chapman start the year with the Reds?

Aroldis Chapman SHOULD start the year with the Reds

By Mike Cardano, Around the Horn Baseball: Mike is the host of The Great Bloguin Baseball Debate series and founder of Around the Horn Baseball and Xtra Point Football

chapman2In January, 2010 the Cincinnati Reds surprised many baseball minds when they signed 21 year old Cuban defect phenom Arolids Chapman to a 6 year $30.25 million contract (paid out over 10 years).

Chapman is not exactly a largely-known quantity. What is known is that Chapman has hit triple-digits in the past with his fastball and at time has showed a nasty slider. He's had some command issues in competition in the past and that has to be worked on, but that's not unlike many pitchers his age.

So what should they do with this kid?

I'll tell you what they should do, they should stick him out on the mound 60'-6" from the NL's best and let him pitch!

Look at this roster of young pitchers the Reds are assembling:

Aroldis Chapman - (02/28/88)
Homer Bailey - (05/03/86)
Johnny Cueto - (02/15/86)
Matt Maloney - (01/16/84)
Edinson Volquez - (07/03/83)

To go along with young pitchers they have some young offense too:

Jay Bruce - (04/03/87)
Joey Votto - (09/10/83)
Brandon Phillips - (06/28/81)

Let's face it, Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang are going to be gone by the trading deadline and they are only going to be getting younger because they aren't going to be able to compete with the St. Louis Cardinals this year anyway. There are too many other quality teams to get a wild card spot, so they might as well let all these young players gel and grow together.

Is he too wild at this point and will that get him in trouble?

Hell yes, half the time he's got no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hands, but it's the other half that the Reds will get excited about. Like all young pitchers he is going to have to learn how to pitch. He'll take his lumps, but there is no reason to baby him.

Chapman will be 22 years old on Monday and has already been through things that many of us will never encounter in our life time. After what he's been through, facing batters like Albert Pujols will be a piece of cake. In fact, standing on a pitcher's mound doing what he loves to do and knows best is probably where he feels most at home.

Chapman is young but it's not like he's never faced veteran professional competition under pressure. He's got experience as being the ace of the Cuban national team's rotation and has played in plenty of international competition including the WBC. If you know anything about Cuba and their national team, there isn't a group of athletes in the world sands the Russian hockey team that has as much pressure on it, pressure from its own government to perform in international competition.

Dusty Baker - not a young pitchers best friend

I'm not one of those who think that hard pitch counts are necessary. I'm one of those who believe that the Yankees did in fact turn Joba Chamberlain into the Cowardly Lion. This kid throws hard and can throw hard for many innings (see chart below).  Let him throw, he's a pitcher, that's what you are paying him for!

chapmanfastball

If a young pitcher is throwing well and you planned to throw him approximately 95-100 pitches and he's got two outs in the 7th inning of a one run game, don't pull him, let him work his way out of it. How the heck are these kids ever going to learn to pitch if they don't go through these things? If the kid ends up with 108 pitches, instead of 95-100, so what? These kids are young and strong; let them learn to go 7, 8 or God forbid 9 innings.

That said, Reds Manager Dusty Baker has long been known to have a total disregard to pitch counts. While it's one thing to let a kid finish an inning or try to work out of a jam, it's complete different thing to just pitch the kid with no regard for the situation or circumstances until his arm falls off.

Dusty Baker has had a pitcher finish in the top-eleven in pitches thrown each of the past nine years, and he has left the starter out there for 122 or more pitches more than any other manager this past decade.

As the former manager of the Cubs, Baker came under a lot of criticism because he inherited a young staff full of talented arms with the Cubs-and ruined them! Kerry Wood? Got sent to the bullpen and has never been the same. Mark Prior? Hasn't had a full season since 2003. Only Carlos Zambrano is still standing, and even he has shown signs of age-and he is only 28! Dr. Roto recently opined that Zambrano is a 28 year old with the pitching arm of a 35 year old.

Let Mario Soto and Brian Price teach this kid the nuances of the game and have him perfect a third pitch and let them say when he comes out. Let him let him learn on the job and take the good with the bad, just don't abuse him. In the years to follow they will be happy they did.

This has been done before

There are many examples of throwing a young kid with a great arm right who is not ready for prime time in the fire, the most recent successful one I can think of is Jeremy Bonderman.

In 2003 the Detroit Tigers took a 20 year old Jeremy Bonderman and ran him out on the mound every day. They had no hope of being a playoff team so why not, he was one of the better arms in the organization. Bonderman got shelled going 6-19 with a 5.56 ERA. The Tigers didn't abuse him though as he only threw 162 innings. In 2004 throwing 184 innings he lowered his ERA to 4.89 and won 11 games. In 2005 he threw 189 innings, lowered his ERA to 4.57 and won 14 games. In 2006 he was one of the fixtures of the Tigers rotation winning 14 games with a 4.08 ERA in 214 innings with 202 K's.

Most importantly in 2006, just four years into his young MLB career Bonderman found himself throwing a dominating 5 hit, 1 BB, 8.1 innings in the Tigers playoff clinching ALDS game 4 against the mighty New York Yankees. Bonderman went on to have a very successful post season with 3.10 ERA in his three starts in the ALDS, ALCS and WS. He took his lumps and then was ready to perform on the big stage when he got there.

Chapman is two years older than Bondeman was. With all his intense international pitching experience he has a lot more pitching experience then Bonderman ever had, and he has more LIFE experience than people twice and even thrice his age.

The Cincinnati Reds aren't very different from the 2003 Detroit Tigers. They aren't going to win this year and next year might be a stretch too, but if you can get all these young players to gel and play together, grow together, win together as a group of youngsters, when they are veterans in 2012, they could have something special.

Aroldis Chapman should start the year with the Red in their rotation, that's it and that's all.

Just because he will walk too many guys to be an attractive option for your fantasy team is NOT a valid reason for paying him the start of his $30.25 million contract to get minor league hitters out. - Mike Cardano, Around the Horn Baseball

Aroldis Chapman SHOULD NOTstart the year with the Reds

By Joe Tetreault, TetreaultVision: Joe Tetreault is a freelance writer and the proprietor of TetreultVision - a contrary thinking libertarian blog busily tacking against the gales of conventional wisdom in the fields of sports, culture, news and more.

chapmanWhen Cincinnati won the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes this January, many observers winced recognizing that the Reds would be feeding a good young arm into the gaping maw of Dusty Baker. Baker represents the Nolan Ryan school of pitching philosophy. Give them the ball and let them throw. That in part led to Homer Bailey's inclusion in the list of players who may suffer from the Verducci Effect. Though no fault of Baker's, Edinson Volquez, the Reds' fireballing righty, came up lame last season and underwent Tommy John surgery. Another young pitcher, Johnny Cueto, has tantalized with flashes of dominance and frustrated with periods of inconsistency. All these young pitchers and Dusty Baker make for a volatile mix, precisely because when last entrusted with talented young pitchers, Mark Prior happened.

But that risk alone is not even the primary reason to allow Chapman to stay in the minors to get completely acclimated to pitching in the US. Unlike Stephen Strasburg, Chapman's path to the majors has been paved primarily with talent and not with accomplishment. Washington's prized pick's past performance gives us an indicator of his relative readiness, but Chapman remains mostly an international man of mystery. He has limited exposure to the talents who populate the Major Leagues, having faced Australia and Japan in the most recent World Baseball Classic. He was effective against Australia allowing a single run in four very solid innings. But against Japan, a team populated with many more major league caliber players, he struggled, loading the bases in the third inning with just one out, before being yanked. Those bequeathed runners came around to score, accounting for the three runs he allowed.

Scouts remained wowed by his electric fastball, his smooth delivery and his upside. Oh yes, we all love that upside. Lefties with triple digit fastballs are rare and highly valuable commodities in baseball. But how well results in Cuba's Serie Nacional translate into success in the Major Leagues is anyone's guess. Even more frightening, despite some stunningly good numbers, his lines are more equivocal than they seem.

Before trivializing his accomplishments, let's list them for the record.

YearTeamWLERAIPHRERHRBBSONotes
2005-2006 Holguin 3 5 4.33 54 48 33 26 5 54 56
2006-2007 Holguin 4 3 2.77 81 59 26 25 4 50 100 7 saves
2007-2008 Holguin 6 7 3.89 74 55 36 32 3 37 79
2008-2009 Holguin 11 4 4.03 118 109 56 53 7 62 130
Career 24 19 3.74 328 271 151 136 19 203 365

At first glance, despite being wowed by the strikeouts, I shudder at his 9.0 BB/9 IP in his rookie year. His control steadily improved, but a career 1.8 K/BB ratio in a statistically significant number of innings over four years is not a record that inspires thoughts of world beater dominance. Those walks befuddle his entire Cuban career and leave him open to comparison to past live arms (Brien Taylor, though injury claimed him as much as inability) who never were able to harness their talent to translate it to a long term major league career.

What's even more damning is that, unlike Strasburg, who at least had some experience this autumn in the Arizona Fall League, Chapman hasn't pitched competitively since defecting last July. Spring Training will give us a statistically insignificant taste of his talent, against competition that's working out the kinks, readying themselves for the season and not playing full tilt. Cincinnati needs to recognize that unlike Washington, they are not getting a polished player, they have a raw talent, needing a minimum of two seasons in the minors to resolve his control issues and acclimate to MLB style ball. It wouldn't hurt if in that time the Reds also decide to install a manager who doesn't have the reputation of wearing out talented pitchers.

The signing was quite the coup for Walt Jocketty, and with luck and health, in 2012, Cincinnati could trot out a rotation of Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman and Matt Maloney. A young quintet of talented pitchers would give them an edge on their division at the precise moment that the Cardinals slip to regroup and before Houston returns to strength. As tempting as it will be to get Chapman up and getting outs, he is not legitimately close to a big league career at this point. A season split between low and high A ball, followed by a season split between AA and AAA is the minimum to properly season him. While I still believe there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, Chapman is not ready to record outs on the big league level. Until he is, he shouldn't be there. - Joe TetreaultTetreaultVision

For more of Joe's take on the topic visit his fine site.

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Comments (35)Add Comment
...
written by Evan Berger, February 17, 2010
Frankly, I don't see what they have to lose by starting him from the get-go.
...
written by Marc Coast, February 17, 2010
No way, he'll get pummeled and lose his confidence.
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written by Melvin Greer, February 18, 2010
Those are some pretty elite names he's mentioned with in that chart. Throw him out there and see what happens. I have a hard time believing that after what he's been through he'll be intimidated by a few walks or a long ball.
...
written by Kenny Harris, February 18, 2010
I had no idea that he's been through all that. He's not a kid anymore.. He's now a man. No reason to worry about the mental side. Start him!
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written by Micheal Wheat, February 18, 2010
You can't help but root for the kid. I do agree that after going through what he did to defect that he's mentally ready for this. He can learn to "pitch" on the job, there is no reason that can't happen. His electric stuff will keep him from things getting too bad.
Minors
written by David Bloom, February 18, 2010
This is no brainer. What benefit is it not giving him time to propery develop in AA ball. This is a big investment and there is not much of a track record for skipping training. Even Tim lincecum required minors and a few years in majors before he became a pitcher and not a thrower. This is not a Jon Olerud situation.
...
written by Kevin Carol, February 18, 2010
David, it's not like he has NO professional experience. He has plenty of international experience. In fact, he's already pitched against many of the MLB players in the WBC. Tim Lincecum had no professional experience.

...
written by AllyC, February 18, 2010
I agree, what's the difference if he throws 160 innings in AA or in the Majors. Exactly what is it that he can learn in AA that he can't at the MLB level?
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written by Morris615, February 18, 2010
Joe, two weeks ago you argued that Strasburg SHOULD start with the Nats. Now your saying Champan should NOT start with the Reds?
...
written by Michael8106, February 18, 2010
Joe, that's a good question, exactly what can he learn at AA or AAA that he can learn in the show?
...
written by Martha018, February 18, 2010
Aside from me just getting in trouble at work for listening to them talk about your blog post here on Cinci radio, I think this was a great debate and you both make valid points.
...
written by yagottabelieve, February 18, 2010
There is a huge difference. Just throwing the heat at the best world talent and getting rocked, and not getting opportunity to work on some of his negative points and growth areas. In minors games are not as crucial in the win/loss category and he can stay on mound and as opposed to heading to the showers. In minors, he gets to improve his craft and learning how to work counts, throwing different type of pitches, etc. If a players is brought up properly, he should be ready to pitch for next 5 years or more at major league level. If its a question if he is not ready or be sent down, he should of never been brought up.
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written by Wembly87, February 18, 2010
He might be able to pitch right away! You want to start him in the minors without even seeing what he can do against the big boys. Like some of the others have said, it's not like he has no experience.

You are discounting the international games he pitched for the Cuban National team. You can't possibly have any more pressure than having to answer directly to Castro if you pitch badly.

He's 22 with a life's worth of hard core world experience. He's not an 18 year old kid out of high school. There isn't anything that will phase him or intimidate him at this point. There is no reason that a 22 year old with good stuff and think skin can't start in the majors.
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written by Edge Fallon, February 18, 2010
While my gut says start him in the minors, the more I read the more I'm being convinced that would simply be a waste of a good arm.
...
written by Michael Gregory, February 18, 2010
I don't know what all the hubub is about. There is no crime on going to the minors if he can't hack it. The Hall of Fame is littered with guys that were sent to the minors for more seasoning early in their careers.
...
written by Ellen Kass, February 18, 2010
I agree. give him a shot. There is no reason that he can't be sent down if he's over matched.
@Morris615
written by Joe Tetreault, February 18, 2010
Quite right you are. The difference between the two is that Strasburg is more of a pitcher, while Chapman remains primarily a hard thrower. Sticking with the TNSTAAPP argument, if there is no such thing as a pitching prospect, then that means a young pitcher is either a big league pitcher or he's not. Chapman is not a big league pitcher, because his wildness will inhibit his ability to get outs. A team with decent plate discipline will wear him out in a hurry, waiting on him to serve up a fat pitch. In comparison, Strasburg has learned how to harness his stuff better. The 23 strikeout game is a good example. In his nine innings of work, he allowed just one walk. It's a difference between finding the plate by luck, and knowing how to set up hitters to put them away. Chapman needs luck, Strasburg has skill. Of course, that's my opinion, but that's the reason I argued for one and not the other. I suspect Strasburg will have the better career, but that Chapman will have the higher peak. A little like Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux.
...
written by ChrisCin, February 18, 2010
Interesting comment from the Cincinnati Reds official web site which has picked up on your debate on it's message boards.

"One problem that I have with both sides of the debate is that it is assumed that Dusty Baker will run the pitching staff. That's the wild card, isn't it? I'm one who, fairly or unfairly, believes that Price is going to be the final word on managing the staff and that Dusty will be there to nod his head wisely and say "I agree, Mr. Price" It won't be out in the open but I think that's the way it is going to work behind the scenes.

Bryan Price is a hard nosed pitch count proponent; Dusty Baker, not so much. So who wins? The guy with three years remaining on his contract.

It will be almost as much fun watching the Baker/Price dance as the baseball games.

My vote? If Price is running the pitching show, "I agree Mr. Price". If its Dusty, God love him, 30 mill and a triple digit arm is just to much to gamble with, put him in Carolina. I don't believe he ruins young arms, but I have come to believe he asks too much of them. Eventually that philosophy catches up with the arm. heh heh

BTW, if Price gets to run the show I wouldn't bet on Dusty being here next year regardless of what happens with the season. He is a proud man, and justifiably so. He won't put up with being sidelined."
@Michael8106
written by Joe Tetreault, February 18, 2010
I'm not necessarily suggesting that he can't learn control in the big leagues. He definitely can. And in some ways, learning in better facilities with better coaches would be very beneficial. The question is how valuable will he be to the team. I think that Strasburg can jump in and immediately bring value to the Nationals. That's due in part to the lack of talent that Washington has. The pitcher friendly Nationals Park is another factor. Chapman is probably the best talent on the Reds 40 man roster. But he's not the best pitcher. Johnny Cueto showed signs of being that guy last year, as did Homer Bailey down the stretch. if you go back to 2008, Edinson Volquez was that guy. If Volquez was healthy, I would take all three of them ahead of Chapman today. I'd even find it hard to pass on Matt Maloney, because he throws strikes and doesn't hurt himself with free passes. Harang and Arroyo are afterthoughts, to me, but, I'd probably take Harang. Arroyo not so much. For Washington, if Jordan Zimmermann was healthy he'd get the nod over Strasburg, and maybe John Lannan, but I wouldn't go with Craig Stammen, JD Martin, Collin Balester, Ross Detweiller or any of the other Nats pitchers. Then there's the Great American Ballpark. If Chapman leaves a pitch fat in the zone, it's a long ball. Nationals park is mildly more forgiving.
@Evan Berger
written by Joe Tetreault, February 18, 2010
Ballgames. Cincinnati is not as hopeless as Washington. If Pittsburgh had signed Chapman I'd porbably say start him in the bigs, too. But Cincinnati has some good starting pitching talent and can let him figure out control in the minors without costing them ballgames.
@Melvin Greer
written by Joe Tetreault, February 18, 2010
I'll agree with you, Melvin. I don't think the walks or homeruns will damage his confidence. My argument is doing what is best for the success of the team. Giving big league innings to Chapman is more likely to result in a loss for the Reds. That's a horrible return on their investment. Unlike Strasburg, who knows how to pitch, Chapman has a gifted arm and a wicked fastball. When he can harness it, he'll be devastating. Until then, he'll infuriate the fans and his manager by making two guys look silly before losing the plate, walking the bases loaded and serving up a slam.
...
written by Mike Cardano, February 18, 2010
Joe, why do you keep suggesting that Strasburg knows how to pitch and Chapman doesn’t. The truth is that Champan has clearly pitched in a higher pressure environment against other individuals who were also trying to put food on the table. Strasburg has only begun to taste that the past few weeks.

I’m not suggesting that Champan will or won’t turn out to have a better career than Strasburg, but if the season were to start today, Champman is the one who is closer to being major league ready from a mental standpoint.
@Kenny Harris
written by Joe Tetreault, February 18, 2010
Let's compare player A vs. Chapman:

Player A has 243 IP in a league whose statistics are impossible to project to major league equivalencies. In those innings he's given up 144 hits, 5 homeruns, he struck out 375 batters while walking 50.

Chapman's stats are above.

Player A is Strasburg, those are his college numbers. Strasburg is hardly a kid either. But unlike Chapman he's discovered how to pitch. They both throw hard. One has control, the other doesn't.

So while Chapman could probably get outs in the majors, he may not be the most effective at doing so.
...
written by Evan Engle, February 18, 2010
I can’t think of any Cuban pitchers that defected that were not MLB ready when they got here. Maybe Jose Contrares wasn’t the world beater the Yankees thought he would be, but he’s still a serviceable MLB pitcher. The Hernandez brothers certainly did well for themselves. Perhaps I’m missing someone. Is there one that was a total flop?
...
written by Beverly Foster, February 18, 2010
Never before have I listened to or read a debate where I agree with both sides... unbelievable.
...
written by Hipple86, February 18, 2010
Beverly, how can you agree with both sides of a debate? That's an oxymoron!
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written by Mike Cardano, February 18, 2010
Better an oxymoron then just a plain old moron smilies/wink.gif
...
written by Christopher Morley, February 18, 2010
Exactly what is so impressive about the results this kid has been able to achieve so far?
...
written by Aaron Green, February 18, 2010
He didn't get paid based on what he's done. he got paid based on what he's projected to do.
Parting Shot
written by Aaron Green, February 18, 2010
I think Mike's parting shot sums it up best.

"Just because he will walk too many guys to be an attractive option for your fantasy team is NOT a valid reason for paying him the start of his $30.25 million contract to get minor league hitters out."
@Mike Cardano
written by Joe Tetreault, February 18, 2010
A quick answer for you before I go back to answer some of the older comments. You after all are the host for our little disagreement.

The primary basis is that remarkable strikeout to walk ratio that Strasburg posted in college. The problem with looking at Chapman's numbers and conferring on them a better pedigree than Strasburg's is just because the Cuban players are professionals, doesn't make them automatically better than US college players, even in the Mountain West Conference. Results matter. Strasburg might have had a 4:1 ration on just stuff. But his was 7.5:1. The inference is that he has developed a knack for setting up batters, using his offspeed and breaking pitches as out pitches, after establishing the fastball. And finally that he has enough control to keep batters from waiting him out.

From those numbers, I've concluded that Strasburg has learned to pitch. Maybe not like Greg Maddux or Orel Hershiser knew how to pitch, but well enough to transition successfully to big league competition.

Chapman's less impressive K/BB ratio suggests he'll be wilder still against better competition. I'll grant that Cuban professional baseball is likely better than Division 1 NCAA baseball, but how much better and how either compare to the majors is impossible to determine. We lack enough information about Cuban ball. And college ball with aluminum bats is an almost entirely different game. Regardless, Chapman is a scout's dream, all arm and talent. Strasburg is arm and talent with a better track record of results.

So much for quick...
@Evan Engle
written by Joe Tetreault, February 18, 2010
A fair point. But no Cuban pitcher who has come to America is as youthful as Chapman.

And I'll throw a small curveball. We've seen fairly good transitions of Japanese pitchers to the majors. And with Japan, we have had major league players compete in the Japanese major leagues which helps us to understand how the leagues compare. Despite that information, when Hideki Irabu came to New York it was a marriage made in the seventh level of hell.

Sticking with Japan, when Boston signed Junichi Tazawa last year, they ticketed him for AA because at 22 they felt he wasn't ready, plus they had a capable staff to handle the majority of the innings in Boston. As it happens, they needed Tazawa in Boston anyway, and while they are still high on him, his initial exposure to big league hitters was poor.

It's difficult to project performance from unknown leagues. While Livan and Orlando Hernadez as well as Jose Contreras have enjoyed success, and Danys Baez too, how many of these guys have you heard of?

Alain Soler
Ariel Prieto
Michael Tejera
Vladimir Nunez
Raul Valdez
Eddy Oropeza
Arian Cruz
Hansel Izquierdo
Maique Quintero
Gary Galvez
Saydel Beltran
Mael Rodriguez
Jose Cordero
Rafael Galvizo
Roberto Sotolongo
Miguel Perez

As of late 2005, those were the Cuban players in the major leagues. Not all were defectors. Some came to the US when they were younger. I'd heard of Soler and Prieto. Soler was a teammate of Contreras and clearly was not nearly as good, as he was gone within a year of his major league debut. Of course he played for the Mets so all is explained smilies/smiley.gif

The assumption that because he was successful just doesn't hold up.
...
written by Wally Greg, February 18, 2010
Joe, but how many of those were mentally toughened by the defection process?
...
written by Merrill Hope, February 18, 2010
Has there been a pitcher since Dwight Gooden that had a real kick-ass Rookie year?
...
written by Max Hert, February 21, 2010
I say let him pitch in the mayor, he is ready.... he'll be fine.

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