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Today's Debaters are:
Andrew Kneeland, Twins Target
Matt Wallace, Take 75 North
Today's Topic is: Who will win the American League Central?
 The MINNESOTA TWINS will win the American League Central
By Andrew Kneeland, Twins Target: "TwinsTarget provides commentary and analysis, with a side dish of sabermetrics and economics. An avid Twins fan, the author of this blog loves nothing more than to lay out his thoughts on the team and the league as a whole. Whether it's a simple transaction analysis, an in-depth minor league scouting report, or a breakdown of historic free agent markets, TwinsTarget.com has all your baseball needs covered!"
The AL Central has historically been one of the more weak, albeit competitive, divisions in baseball. The division winner has averaged just 93 wins per season, and the last 100-game winner to come out of the AL Central was the Cleveland Indians, back in 1995.
In 2009, the AL Central outpaced their NL Central counterparts by scoring an average of 76.4 wins per team. The NL Central averaged 76, which was the lowest mark in baseball. The AL West averaged 86 wins per team, which led baseball.
Regardless of the strength of its inhabitants, though, the AL Central will send no fewer than one team to the postseason in 2010. Judging from past seasons, this six-month long struggle will be a dogfight to the end. Here are five reasons why the Minnesota Twins will win the AL Central:
Much More Offensive Firepower Than Rest of Division
As the old saying goes, "Hitting wins games, but pitching and defense wins championships." The Minnesota Twins, with a loaded offense and spotty pitching staff will attempt to refute that claim in 2010.
There is no doubting that the Twins will be able to score plenty of runs. No fewer than five players in the lineup are capable of hitting 30 home runs: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, JJ Hardy, and conceivably Delmon Young.
The first two batters in Minnesota's lineup - Denard Span and Orlando Hudson -- are offensive threats in their own right. Nick Punto, who will likely bat ninth, is the only batter in the order who won't make opposing pitchers sweat.
Up and down the order, there aren't too many batters who will be rally-killers. Clearly, if the Twins win the AL Central, the offense will be largely responsible.
A Solid Defense, Especially in the Infield
Minnesota does not have the best outfield defense by any stretch of the imagination, but last year's horrid UZR totals are a bit misleading.* Due to the bright lights of the Metrodome and the "baggy" in right field, both Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer appeared to be much worse defenders than they actually were.
(* - For those not aware, UZR, or "Ultimate Zone Rating," is a defensive stat that people prefer to use over the traditional fielding percentage. UZR eliminates the subjectivity of "errors" and fielding percentage, while rating players based on how much of the field they cover, and how well they cover the field relative to other players of that position. For more information on UZR, check out this primer.)
 Young has lost 29 pounds and appears to be fleet of foot again. Cuddyer won't be forced to deal with the "baggy" in right field any longer, so his UZR won't take any unnecessary hit. Denard Span wasn't the best in center field last year, but that could largely be due to the fact that he was shuffled around so much. He has been named the opening day center fielder, and he should settle in nicely.
As a whole, the Twins' outfield will provide slightly below-average defense. With a starting rotation that consists primarily of fly-ball pitchers, this is certainly an area of concern.
The infield defense, however, will be among the best in the league. Nick Blackburn is one of the few ground-ball pitchers in the Twins' rotation, and he will greatly benefit from the very strong infield defense this year. With Nick Punto at third, JJ Hardy at shortstop, Orlando Hudson at second, Justin Morneau at first, and Joe Mauer behind the plate, the Twins' infield looks air-tight.
At Least Two Pitchers Should See Drastic Improvements From Last Year
Both Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey had abnormally high Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) in 2009 - which simply means that hitters were receiving an abnormally high amount of "lucky breaks" -- which led to less-than-stellar ERAs and WHIPs. While the league average is around .300, Pavano had a BABIP of .344 in 2009, while Slowey had hitters post a BABIP of .352.
While not his ideal role, Slowey will be given the No. 2 spot in the starting rotation in 2010. Carl Pavano will be the primary innings-eater of the bunch, stuck somewhere in the middle of the rotation. If either can take a step forward in 2010, the Twins stand a much better chance of pulling ahead of their AL Central rivals. As the statistics will tell you, this step forward appears to be imminent.
There Are Not Many Rookies Needing Transition Time
Outside of the eventual promotion of Danny Valencia, the Twins will not be relying on any rookies to patch any holes in the roster. Manning almost every position on the squad is a player with several years' of experience. While the youthful spirit could be missed, the veteran savvy will help the team win one- or two-run games.
As a general rule of thumb, recently-promoted rookies require some time to adapt to the new environment. Depending on the player, this could take anywhere from a few months to a few years. For the 2010 Twins, this won't be an issue, and the entire team should be prepared for major-league caliber opponents on April 5 and very few hiccups are expected.
Plenty of Trade Chips for a Mid-Season Acquisition
The Twins have a surplus of minor league talent in their organization. The most prominent name that will be dangled about near the July 31 Trade Deadline will be catcher Wilson Ramos. Possessing excellent ability with a bat in his hands along with great defensive skill, it is very likely that Ramos will find himself on another team's 40-man roster in 2010.
 Assuming Joe Mauer is re-signed, Ramos will be almost entirely obsolete in the Twins' system. Playing last year with the Double-A New Britain Rock Cats, Ramos should finish 2010 in Triple-A but could be a candidate for a September promotion. For a team in the playoff hunt in need of a late-inning bat off the bench, Ramos could provide significant value as soon as this year.
When paired with one of the several elite Minnesota outfield prospects (Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, and Joe Benson come to mind), Ramos could net the Twins a premier starting pitcher for a two-month rental. If Minnesota is within spitting distance of the AL Central lead near the Trading Deadline, a trade for Brandon Webb or Cliff Lee could provide the difference.
Bonus: The Loss of Joe Nathan Won't Hurt Too Bad
Twins fans were given a gut punch on Tuesday of this week when they received the news that Joe Nathan would most likely be out for the season. Probably requiring Tommy John surgery as a 35-year old, Nathan's career could very well be over.
Six saves away from the franchise record, this is a devastating blow for one of the most consistent relievers in modern baseball history. I feel worse for him than I do for the situation the Twins have been put in.
Clearly, losing Nathan for the entire season is not ideal. The sense of security you receive when Nathan steps to the mound in the ninth inning of a close game is something that will be deeply missed. Thanks to the rather deep Minnesota bullpen, though, Nathan's loss won't hurt the Twins too bad, and certainly doesn't make them any less of the AL Central favorite than they already were.
At his best, Nathan was responsible for around two of Minnesota's wins per season. The several adequate relievers the Twins have in their bullpen are more than capable of making up for the four percent of total team innings that Nathan pitched in 2009. A combination of Jon Rauch, Pet Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jose Mijares will all take a small step forward in terms of responsibility and hope that their production follows.
By using a closer-by-committee approach, the Twins would be allowing the game situation to dictate who they decide to pitch in the 9th inning, which could work to the Twins' advantage in the AL Central race in 2010. - Andrew Kneeland, Twins Target
 The DETROIT TIGERS will win the American League Central
By Matt Wallace, Take 75 North: Matt Wallace is the writer of t75n.com, grew up rooting for the Tigers and now lives in Toledo. That allows him to follow the Tigers' minor league teams without it being too obvious that he takes all this stuff way too seriously.
The Tigers are going to win the American League Central in 2010. I'll concede for that statement to prove true come October, they are going to need some things to break their way. By most estimations, the Twins were a better team last year. The changes the Twins made over the offseason are also easier to see as an overall improvement compared to what Detroit did.
Then again, a team that looks like it has a clear advantage at the beginning of the season can see that edge disappear quickly. How much closer did the Twins fall back to the division when they found out Joe Nathan had a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow? Probably not as much as Twins fans fear right now, but there was an impact and your team's chances can change just that quickly.
I'm not going to focus on the other teams in the division, though. I want to talk about how the Tigers are going to win the division, not how everybody else is going to vacate the division's top spot. So what are going to be the factors in the Tigers grabbing the Central? How are they going to take a team picked by most to flirt with .500 and add the eight to ten wins it will take to advance from mediocrity to the postseason?
Rookies
For the first time since 2006, the Tigers are heading into the regular season with a rookie position player expected to play a major role in their success or failure. Back in 2006, that rookie was Curtis Granderson. In 2010, Austin Jackson is going to be stepping into almost the exact role Granderson left.Scott Sizemore is the other rookie who's expected to start and he'll be taking Polanco's role as the second baseman.
 It's a tall order being asked of these two. Jackson is expected to take both of Granderson's jobs - center field and leadoff hitter. He looks to have the speed and instincts for both roles, but many are skeptical of his ability to get on base enough to maximize the benefit of being followed by Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera in the batting order. It's a legitimate concern. If he's hitting .270 or .280 and only drawing 40 or 50 walks, the Tigers are going to be heading into the heart of the order with more outs than they'd like.
What we don't know, and what I expect to surprise many people, is how batting leadoff is going to change Jackson's approach. He didn't hit leadoff last season and from what I can tell at minorleaguesplits.com, he hasn't had that role regularly since he was 19 in Single A ball. I think he's a smart enough player to realize the importance of getting on base to give the big bats runners to bring home.
As for Scott Sizemore, I expect Tiger fans to be surprised at just how close he's going to come to replacing Placido Polanco's production. He may not reproduce Polly's batting average, but his willingness to watch ball four, his ability to drive the ball for extra bases and a little more speed on the bases should allow him to approach Polanco's offensive value Polanco. Whether he can be as valuable as Polanco overall will depend on the difference in the two's defense, which has been overstated during the offseason.
We shouldn't move on from discussing the impact rookies before mentioning Alex Avila. Whether he breaks camp with the Tigers or not, I expect his left-handed bat and impressive approach at the plate to insert themselves into the picture for the Tigers. If the Tigers struggle to score runs, he could be a solution they look to as they seek to plug holes in their lineup.
Jeremy Bonderman
The Tigers need Jeremy Bonderman to be healthy and they need him to find the feel for pitching he may have lost over the course of his lost time. He hasn't been right for about two-and-a-half years now, but the Tigers don't need him to be the frontline starter he was in 2006 and the first half of 2007.
They just need him to take the ball every five days and hang right around the league average. That would give them an advantage over most teams' fourth starters - even playoff teams. Getting that kind of effort in the fourth starter's role would be great, but another benefit would be reducing by the number of spots to be filled by the Tigers‘ other starting candidates. I'm much more optimistic they'll find one serviceable starter among Armando Galarraga, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis and Alfredo Figaro than I about them finding two.
Carlos Guillen
For the past couple years, the Tigers have looked to Carlos Guillen to be one of their most potent bats who can offer a good approach and a surprising amount of power. It was supposed to be his offensive potency that would allow him to make up for his defensive shortcomings. Those are the same shortcomings that have caused him to be pushed from shortstop, to third base, to first base, to left field, to designated hitter as the Tigers looked to improve on the field.
Even more than a weak glove, injuries have limited Guillen's value the past two seasons. They have cut his last two seasons short and that has resulted in a drop in counting stats like runs, home runs and runs batted in. That has driven down the expectations of fans, who I think are starting to forget just how good a hitter he was in 2006 and 2007. It has also suppressed the expectations of projection systems, which based on the past two seasons, expect more injury problems and limited at bats from the 34-year old.
I think all of this is setting Carlos Guillen up to be a surprise in the opposite way in 2010. I think he's going to be healthy enough to hit. Since he'll be placed in a role that sees him do almost nothing but hit, I also think he will be able to stay in the lineup most nights. That will put him in a vital role as one of the Tigers' only left-handed bats, using his disciplined approach to take full advantage of hitting behind Damon, Ordonez and Cabrera.
 Wrap-up
Clearly, these players won't be the only factors should the Tigers step up and win the Central Division. In fact, if these players are the best players on the team it's almost certain the Tigers won't win the division. Detroit will still need their pitchers like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Jose Valverde to meet expectations or surpass them.
They will need the previously mentioned hitters, Damon, Ordonez and Cabrera to carry the load being put on their shoulders by a lineup that will do its best to crack the top half of the American League in runs scored. They will need excellent defense out of the players who are not expected to hit much and they'll need their role players to make good use of their specialized situations.
The players detailed above are simply the guys who, if they outpace expectations, could cover the difference in the Tigers' meager second and third place projections and a fantastic, first place finish. It's true the Tigers aren't a team so good that things can go just as expected and turn out in their favor. I think they are good enough, however, that a subtle uptick from what they were expected to be and what they are could make all the difference. - Matt Wallace, Take 75 North
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